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The third industrial transfer of semiconductors, Chinas decisive victory in the "battle of tianwangshan"半导体第三次产业转移,中国决胜 “天王山之战”

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The third industrial transfer of semiconductors, Chinas decisive victory in the "battle of tianwangshan"半导体第三次产业转移,中国决胜 “天王山之战”

发布日期:2019-07-06 作者:www.cycas.com 点击:

 国内需求庞大,政府大力支持,技术逐渐成熟,中国芯片产业正在经历进口替代的浪潮。在已经到来的半导体行业第三次产业转移中,中国将以坚定的决心和充分的准备成为最大获益者。


  1.1.1. 全球半导体行业持续高景气,芯片仍是核心

  内存价格上涨带动全球半导体行业景气,并有望持续。从去年下半年开始,全球DRAM内存产品率先开始涨价。本次涨价的原因主要是需求扩大下,供给没有及时补上导致的供求失衡:供给方面,以三星、海力士等主要供应商没有扩产;需求方面:由于智能手机内存升级扩大导致内存需求增大,但晶圆厂的建设需要时间,因此无法在短期内实现产能的快速增加,我们预计本轮涨价有望持续到18年。

  半导体包括分立器件、光电子、传感器、集成电路四大类型。其中,由于集成电路(通常又称为芯片)占整个半导体销售额的比重高达84%,是整个半导体工业的核心,因此,芯片也经常成为整个半导体工业的代称。整个芯片行业又可以细分为模拟电路、微处理器、逻辑电路和记忆体四类,分别占比15%、18%、28%、23%。


  1.1.2. 全球电子化率不断提升,汽车电子、物联网将成新看点

  目前全球芯片市场仍以智能手机及PC为主,汽车电子等领域的芯片需求正在成为芯片领域的新看点。以智能手机为主要下游的芯片市场,在全球智能手机持续增长的态势下仍将受益于存量换机,另一方面在今年以iPhone为代表的智能手机创新下,新增功能的芯片需求也将迅速增加。此外,汽车电子、物联网、5G等新产业的兴起将继续增加芯片的需求。

  存量需求:智能手机市场的换机需求和设备更新需求

  目前智能手机仍然是芯片的主要下游市场。去年以来以iPhone 6s和7为典型的智能手机市场由于创新不足迟滞了部分换机需求。我们认为以iPhone X为风向标的新一代智能手机在功能升级下,将会引领智能手机市场的新一轮发展风向,在迟滞的存量换机和新增功能的创新需求双重利好下,芯片市场将会迎来巨大的需求。iPhone X中推出的无线充电、OLED屏幕等功能,在后续将会催生AMOLED驱动芯片、指纹识别芯片、无线充电芯片等芯片的需求。

  增量需求:汽车电子以及5G、人工智能等新技术是下一个半导体蓝海市场。

  去年10月,高通以史上最高价收购恩智浦,布局汽车电子芯片领域,主要原因在于智能手机芯片市场的饱和状态比较明显。相对智能手机市场,汽车电子化率目前低于30%,未来有望超过50%[1],因此市场空间可观。

  新兴技术领域的芯片需求量也不容小觑。人工智能、物联网、5G等新产业在政策支持和产业自身技术突破的双重驱动下,有望在2018-2020年迎来规模化的商用。人工智能和AR/VR产业所需的GPU,以及物联网、5G等产业需要的传感器和通讯芯片等都将成为未来芯片市场的新增需求。


  1.2. 芯片仍依赖进口,自主可控不容有失

  国内市场的半导体需求旺盛。2016年中国半导体消费量已经占到全球的三分之一,中国集成电路产业销售额为4335.5亿元,同比增长20.1%。庞大的中国市场是半导体产业企业纷纷想分享的“一块大蛋糕”。

  中国半导体消费量高的原因,主要得益于中国制造业环境优势以及中国消费电子企业崛起两大因素:

  中国制造业环境优势。在中国完整的产业链集群和相对低廉的熟练技工的吸引下,外资电子制造企业纷纷选择在中国设厂。

  中国制造的崛起。以HOV为代表的中国智能手机企业的快速发展也为中国芯片市场带来了大量的需求。

  国内的半导体需求高涨,但是相比较下,国内的晶圆产能与需求量严重不匹配,这也是国内半导体贸易逆差不断扩大的原因。据统计,2016年中国占全球半导体消费市场的三分之一,但仅占全球晶圆产能的10.8%。

  中国芯片市场巨大的供需缺口使得中国成为全球半导体投资重地,国家队一马当先成为中国半导体的主力军。2015年左右在国家产业基金的支持下国内企业纷纷建设晶圆厂。据国际半导体设备与材料产业协会(SEMI)估计,目前处于规划或建设阶段,预计将于2017~2020年间投产的62座前端半导体晶圆厂,其中26座设于大陆,占全球总数42%。

  外资企业在看到中国广阔市场以及供求不平衡的情况下,也加入在国内设厂的行列中,今年以来格罗方德、三星等大厂均宣布在华设厂,或者扩产。外资设厂的原因除了看到中国的市场外,还有以下两个原因:1)避免中国本土市场持续增长的半导体需求带动本土半导体企业的发展后丢失中国市场份额;2)享受中国政府对高端外资企业的优惠政策。中国政府也乐于见到国际大厂来华,因为这可以为中国带来高端的技术、先进的管理经验、产业人才并完善产业生态。

  中国庞大的芯片市场一直被海外半导体巨头所掌控,如中央处理器领域的英特尔、手机芯片领域的高通、存储器领域的三星、海力士、图形处理器领域的英伟达、AMD,等。这些海外巨头几乎垄断了全部主流的芯片领域。因此,我国不得不每年从海外进口超过2000亿美元的芯片,这一金额大约是(2016年)石油进口金额的两倍。

  比巨额的芯片进口费用更令人担忧的,是芯片严重依赖西方发达国家带来的国家信息安全和国家战略压力。一个典型的例子是2012年,中兴通过签订合同的方式,将一批搭载了美国科技公司软硬件的产品出售给伊朗最大的电信运营商伊朗电信(TCI)。结果次年3月,美国商务部宣布对中兴通讯进行制裁。制裁手段是向中兴的美国供货商发出禁令,禁止这些公司向中兴通讯继续提供美国制造的产品。由于中兴的产品和设备大量依赖来自美国的芯片,包括美国高通、IBM、英特尔在内的上百家美国大型公司都是中兴通讯的供货商,因此如果合作全部中止,中兴将面临“无米下炊”的困境。因此中兴不得不在被“封杀”一年后认罚,与美国商务部和解,同时支付约8.9亿美元的刑事和民事罚金,(另有 3亿美元罚金被暂缓,是否支付取决于未来七年公司对协议的遵守并继续接受独立的合规监管和审计)。如果我国不能在芯片上实现独立自主,可以预见类似的事件今后还将继续发生,继续损坏国家战略、安全和经济利益。


  1.3. 中国:决胜半导体第三次产业转移与升级

  1.3.1. 回顾半导体产业前两轮转移

  半导体产业历史上发生了两次大规模的产业转移,本质都是产业升级后的必然产物。

  第一次产业转移(美国到日本):主要是美国的装配产业向日本转移,而日本通过技术创新与家电行业结合,稳固了日本家电行业的地位;并在80年代抓住PC产业的兴起,凭借在家电领域的积累,快速实现DRAM的量产。

  第二次产业转移(日本到韩国、台湾):第二次转移得益于90年代日本的经济泡沫。日本难以持续支持DRAM技术升级和晶圆厂建设的资金需求,此时韩国把握机会,在大财团的资金支持下,坚持对DRAM的投入,确立PC端龙头地位,并抓住手机市场,最后确立了市场中的芯片霸主地位。而台湾则利用IDM分离为Fabless和Foundry时,着力发展Foundry。由此产生了半导体的第二次转移,即美、日向韩国和台湾转移。


  1.3.2. 中国具备成为半导体新领导者的条件

  回顾历史上这两次半导体产业转移,我们可以观察到以下两个特点:抓住产业升级机会;大资金的支持。

  原因一方面在于产业升级实际上对原有产业链结构也造成了冲击,因此会出现新的业态,也造就新的产业机会,台湾半导体产业的崛起就是典型的案例;另一方面则在于产业变革必然带来设备的变化和升级,由于前期设备的投入固定成本非常大,如果紧密跟踪产业升级,必将需要大量的资金支持,因此大量的半导体制造企业因为资金紧张而被淘汰,例如英特尔凭借资金优势与AMD打持久战,最终将AMD的制造部门拖垮,不得不剥离出去。

  目前物联网、5G、人工智能等新技术普及以及汽车电子有望成为半导体第三次产业升级的主战场,而中国在国家产业政策和基金的支持下,凭借庞大的消费市场,有望抓住第三次升级,成为半导体的领导者。


  1.3.3. 国家政策支撑,产业基金引领

  国家政策的支持是推动半导体产业发展的强力保障。以2014年成立的基金为重要标志,国家以实际资金支持半导体行业。《中国制造2025》提出2020 年中国芯片自给率要达到40%,2025年要达到70%,但目前国内的自给率仍为10%左右[1],按照国家规划,接下来几年我国半导体产业将迎来高速发展。 

  千亿资金覆盖半导体行业,并将撬动大量资金进入。2014年9月24日,国家集成电路产业投资基金成立,截至2017年4月底,大基金已经投资了37家企业,46个项目,并承诺投资850亿元,实际出资628亿元(包括直接投资及生态建设项目间接投资),投资项目涉及到设计、制造、封测、设备、材料,基本完成全产业链布局。

   大基金的成立有以下两个作用:一方面通过股权投资的方式扶持企业,体现了国家对半导体行业全产业链发展的重视,同时在产业链投资中侧重于对龙头企业的扶持。另一方面则是通过产业基金的设立来撬动地方以及其他社会资本的介入,为半导体行业提供资金保障。

  产业基金投资效益初现,二期基金整装待发。国家产业基金一期资金总额1387亿,带动地方集成电路产业发展基金的目标规模合计已经多达5000亿元。第二期有望在2018年推出,资金总额将接近2000亿。


  1.3.4. 中国成为半导体下一个主战场

  2018年将迎来新厂投产高峰,半导体行业“大战”一触即发

  国家大基金一期的数百亿美元投入如今正在开花结果,据SEMI预计,大陆的晶圆厂2017年预计将有6座上线投产,2018年则达到高峰,共13座晶圆厂加入营运,这些将于2018年完工的晶圆厂多数为晶圆代工厂。

  当前主流的12寸晶圆厂,在过去两年中全球共兴建了十七座,其中就有十座设在中国大陆,同期间日本与韩国仅各增加一座产线。这些晶圆厂中大部分将在2018年陆续迎来投产。这些产能达产后,预计会为中国带来12寸产能61.5万片/月,是当前12寸产能的1.57倍。


  1.4. 双视角寻找“中国芯”的投资良机

  国内需求庞大,政府大力支持,技术逐渐成熟,中国芯片产业正在经历进口替代的浪潮。在已经到来的半导体行业第三次产业转移中,中国将以坚定的决心和充分的准备成为最大获益者。

                    The third industrial transfer of semiconductors, China's decisive victory in the "battle of tianwangshan"

        China's chip industry is experiencing a wave of import substitution due to huge domestic demand, strong government support and gradually mature technology. In the coming third industrial transfer of semiconductor industry, China will become the biggest beneficiary with firm determination and full preparation. 

       1.1.1. global semiconductor industry continues to boom, chip is still the core of the memory price rise to drive the global semiconductor industry boom, 

and is expected to continue. Since the second half of last year, DRAM memory products in the world have taken the lead in raising prices. The main reason for this price increase is that supply did not make up the imbalance between supply and demand in time due to the expansion of demand: on the supply side, Samsung, Hynix and other major suppliers did not expand production; on the demand side, due to the expansion of memory upgrade of smart phones, memory demand increased, but the construction of wafer factories took time, so it is impossible to realize the rapid increase of production capacity in a short period of time. We expect that The price increase is expected to last for 18 years. Semiconductor includes four types: discrete devices, optoelectronics, sensors and integrated circuits. Among them, integrated circuits (commonly known as chips) account for 84% of the total semiconductor sales, which is the core of the whole semiconductor industry. Therefore, chips often become the pronoun of the whole semiconductor industry. The whole chip industry can be subdivided into four categories: analog circuit, microprocessor, logic circuit and memory, accounting for 15%, 18%, 28% and 23% respectively. 

     1.1.2. global electronics rate is rising, automotive electronics and Internet of things will become a new look. 

    At present, the global chip market is still dominated by mobile phone and PC. Chip demand in automotive electronics and other fields is becoming a new aspect in the chip industry. The chip market with smart phones as the main downstream market will still benefit from the stock exchange under the situation of continuous growth of global smart phones. On the other hand, under the innovation of smart phones represented by iPhones this year, the chip demand for new functions will also increase rapidly. In addition, the rise of automotive electronics, Internet of things, 5g and other new industries will continue to increase the demand for chips.Demand for mobile phone: demand for mobile phone market and equipment renewal demand. At present, smart phone is still the main downstream market of chips. Since last year, the smartphone market, which is typical of the iPhone 6S and 7, has been sluggish in part due to lack of innovation. We believe that the new generation of smart phones with iPhone x as the wind vane will lead a new round of development direction in the smart phone market under the function upgrading, and the chip market will usher in a huge demand under the double advantages of sluggish stock replacement and new function innovation demand. The wireless charging, OLED screen and other functions introduced in iPhone x will generate the demand of AMOLED driver chip, fingerprint recognition chip, wireless charging chip and other chips in the future. Incremental demand: automotive electronics and new technologies such as 5g and artificial intelligence are the next semiconductor blue ocean market. Last October, Qualcomm bought NXP in the highest price in history, and laid out the field of automotive electronic chip, mainly because the saturation of mobile phone chip market was obvious. Compared with the smartphone market, the car electronization rate is currently lower than 30% and is expected to exceed 50% in the future [1], so the market space is considerable. The demand for chips in the emerging technology field should not be underestimated. Driven by policy support and technological breakthrough of the industry itself, new industries such as artificial intelligence, Internet of things and 5g are expected to usher in large-scale commercial use in 2018-2020. The GPU required by the AI and AR / VR industries, as well as the sensors and communication chips required by the Internet of things, 5g and other industries, will become the new demand of the chip market in the future.

     1.2. The chip still relies on import, so it can't be controlled independently. 

There is a strong demand for semiconductor in the domestic market. In 2016, China's semiconductor consumption accounted for one third of the world's total. The sales volume of China's integrated circuit industry was 433.55 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% year on year. The huge Chinese market is a "big cake" that semiconductor industry enterprises want to share. The reason why China consums a lot of semiconductor is mainly due to the advantages of China's manufacturing industry and the two factors of the rise of China's consumer electronics enterprises: the environmental advantages of China's manufacturing industry. Under the attraction of China's complete industrial chain cluster and relatively low skilled technicians, foreign electronic manufacturing enterprises have chosen to set up factories in China. The rise of made in China. The rapid development of Chinese smart phone enterprises represented by HOV has also brought a lot of demand for the chip market in China. However, compared with the high demand for semiconductors in China, the domestic wafer production capacity and demand are seriously mismatched, which is also the reason why the domestic semiconductor trade deficit continues to expand. According to statistics, China accounted for one third of the global semiconductor consumer market in 2016, but only 10.8% of the global wafer production capacity. 

      The huge gap between supply and demand in China's chip market has made China a global semiconductor investment center, and the national team has become the main force of China's semiconductor industry. Around 2015, with the support of the national industrial fund, domestic enterprises have built wafer factories. According to the international semiconductor equipment and Materials Industry Association (semi), currently in the planning or construction stage, 62 front-end semiconductor wafer factories are expected to be put into operation in 2017-2020, 26 of which are located in the mainland, accounting for 42% of the global total.

      Foreign enterprises have joined the ranks of domestic factories in the sight of China's vast market and imbalance between supply and demand. Since this year, big factories such as grove, Samsung and others have announced that they are setting up factories or expanding production in China. In addition to seeing the Chinese market, there are two reasons why foreign companies set up factories: 1) to avoid the continuous growth of semiconductor demand in China's local market driving the development of local semiconductor enterprises to lose market share in China; 2) to enjoy the preferential policies of the Chinese government for high-end foreign-funded enterprises. The Chinese government is also happy to see large international factories coming to China, because it can bring China high-end technology, advanced management experience, industrial talents and improve the industrial ecology.  

    China's huge chip market has been controlled by overseas semiconductor giants, such as Intel in the field of central processor, Qualcomm in the field of mobile phone chip, Samsung in the field of memory, Hynix, NVIDIA and AMD in the field of graphics processor, etc. These overseas giants monopolize almost all the mainstream chip fields. Therefore, China has to import more than 200 billion US dollars of chips from overseas every year, which is about twice the amount of oil import (2016).               What is more worrying than the huge cost of chip import is that chips are heavily dependent on the national information security and national strategic pressure brought by western developed countries. A typical example is that in 2012, ZTE signed a contract to sell a batch of products carrying software and hardware of US technology companies to Iran Telecom (TCI), the largest telecom operator in Iran. Results in March of the following year, the US Department of Commerce announced sanctions on ZTE. The sanctions are a ban on ZTE's U.S. suppliers from continuing to supply ZTE with U.S. - made products. As ZTE's products and equipment are heavily dependent on chips from the United States, hundreds of large American companies, including Qualcomm, IBM and Intel, are suppliers of ZTE. Therefore, if the cooperation is completely suspended, ZTE will face the dilemma of "no rice to cook". As a result, ZTE had to accept the punishment one year after being "banned" and settle with the U.S. Department of Commerce, while paying about $890 million in criminal and civil penalties (another $300 million is suspended, whether to pay depends on the company's compliance with the agreement in the next seven years and continues to accept independent compliance supervision and audit). If China can not achieve independence on chip, it can be predicted that similar events will continue to occur in the future, and continue to damage national strategic, security and economic interests.

       1.3. China: winning the third industrial transfer and upgrading of Semiconductors.

          1.3.1. Review the first two rounds of transfer of semiconductor industry there have been two large-scale industrial transfer in the history of semiconductor industry, which are essentially the inevitable product of industrial upgrading.

         The first industrial transfer (from the United States to Japan): it is mainly the transfer of the assembly industry from the United States to Japan, and Japan has consolidated the position of the Japanese home appliance industry through the combination of technological innovation and home appliance industry; and in the 1980s, it seized the rise of the PC industry, with the accumulation in the home appliance field, quickly realized the mass production of DRAM. 

         The second industrial transfer (Japan to Korea, Taiwan): the second shift benefited from the economic bubble of Japan in 90s. It is difficult for Japan to continue to support the capital demand for DRAM technology upgrading and wafer factory construction. At this time, South Korea seizes the opportunity, under the financial support of the large financial group, adheres to the investment in DRAM, establishes the leading position of PC end, seizes the mobile phone market, and finally establishes the chip dominant position in the market. Taiwan, on the other hand, made great efforts to develop foundry when IDM was used to separate it into fabless and foundry. This resulted in the second transfer of semiconductors, i.e., the transfer to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

         1.3.2. China has the conditions to become a new leader in semiconductor industry. 

          Looking back on the two semiconductor industry transfers in history, we can observe the following two characteristics: seize the opportunity of industrial upgrading; support of large funds.

         On the one hand, the industrial upgrading actually impacts the original industrial chain structure, so new formats will appear and new industrial opportunities will be created. The rise of Taiwan's semiconductor industry is a typical case; on the other hand, the industrial transformation will inevitably bring about changes and upgrading of equipment, because the fixed cost of early equipment investment is very large, if closely followed up Industrial upgrading will inevitably require a lot of financial support, so a large number of semiconductor manufacturing enterprises are eliminated due to the lack of funds. For example, Intel has a long-term battle with AMD with its capital advantage, which eventually drags down the manufacturing department of AMD and has to be spun off. 

        At present, the popularization of new technologies such as Internet of things, 5g, artificial intelligence and automotive electronics are expected to become the main battlefield for the third industrial upgrading of semiconductors. With the support of national industrial policies and funds, China is expected to seize the third upgrading and become the leader of semiconductors with its huge consumer market.

       1.3.3. National policy support, industry fund leading  

      National policy support is a strong guarantee to promote the development of semiconductor industry. With the fund established in 2014 as an important symbol, the State supports the semiconductor industry with actual funds. Made in China 2025 proposes that China's chip self-sufficiency rate should reach 40% in 2020 and 70% in 2025, but at present, the domestic self-sufficiency rate is still about 10% [1]. According to the national plan, China's semiconductor industry will usher in rapid development in the next few years.

        Hundred billion yuan will cover the semiconductor industry, and a large amount of money will be mobilized. On September 24, 2014, the national integrated circuit industry investment fund was established. By the end of April 2017, the large fund had invested 37 enterprises and 46 projects, and committed to invest 85 billion yuan, with an actual investment of 62.8 billion yuan (including direct investment and indirect investment in ecological construction projects). The investment projects involved design, manufacturing, sealing and testing, equipment and materials, and basically completed the layout of the whole industrial chain.

      The establishment of large fund has two functions as follows: on the one hand, it supports enterprises through equity investment, which reflects the national attention to the whole industrial chain development of semiconductor industry, and focuses on the support of leading enterprises in the industrial chain investment. On the other hand, through the establishment of industrial funds to leverage the intervention of local and other social capital, to provide financial security for the semiconductor industry.

     The investment benefit of industrial fund is emerging, and the second phase fund is ready to be launched. The total amount of the first phase of the national industrial fund is 138.7 billion yuan, and the total target scale of the local IC industry development fund has reached 500 billion yuan. The second phase is expected to be launched in 2018, with a total capital of nearly 200 billion.

       1.3.4. China becomes the next main battlefield of semiconductor

           2018 will usher in the peak of new plant production, and the semiconductor industry "war" is on the verge

           Tens of billions of US dollars invested in the first phase of the national big fund are now bearing fruit. According to semi, it is estimated that six of the mainland's Fabs will be put into production in 2017, and reach a peak in 2018, with 13 Fabs entering operation. Most of the fabs to be completed in 2018 are Fab generation plants.         

       In the past two years, 17 of the current mainstream 12 inch wafer factories have been built in the world, 10 of which are located in mainland China, and only one production line has been added in Japan and South Korea in the same period. Most of these Fabs will be put into production in 2018. After the production capacity is reached, it is expected to bring 615000 pieces / month of 12 inch production capacity to China, 1.57 times of the current 12 inch production capacity.

       1.4. Looking for investment opportunities of "China core" from two perspectives

        China's chip industry is experiencing a wave of import substitution due to huge domestic demand, strong government support and gradually mature technology. In the coming third industrial transfer of semiconductor industry, China will become the biggest beneficiary with firm determination and full preparation.




                

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